Why I Think About Markets

I’m not a trader by profession, but I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about markets. Not because I want to get rich quick — but because markets are the most honest feedback system I’ve found.

The Appeal

In most domains, you can fool yourself for a long time. You can write code that “works” but is subtly wrong. You can hold beliefs that feel right but aren’t tested. Markets don’t care about your narrative. You’re either right or you’re not, and the P&L doesn’t lie.

What I’ve Learned

The biggest lesson from studying markets: uncertainty is not the enemy, overconfidence is. The best traders I’ve read about all share one trait — they size their bets based on how much they don’t know, not how much they do.

This carries over to engineering. The best systems are designed for the failure modes you haven’t thought of yet.